As the U.S. presidential election approaches, its outcome may carry far-reaching implications for the UK’s financial and professional services sectors, particularly in employment and recruitment. The election result could influence market conditions, trade relations, and regulatory landscapes, all of which play critical roles in shaping hiring trends and workforce strategies within the UK.

Potential Impact on Employment Demand

Historically, U.S. elections have introduced market volatility, affecting global investment and hiring patterns. This year, the uncertainty is amplified by the tight race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, which has held markets in anticipation (Reuters, 2024). A continuation of Trump’s pro-business stance may bolster U.S. market growth, potentially driving hiring needs across financial services sectors with cross-border operations. In contrast, a shift towards more regulation under Harris may temper certain growth avenues, impacting how UK firms plan their workforce strategies.

Effects on Trade Policy and Workforce Flexibility

Trade policy changes are among the most anticipated post-election shifts. Trump’s proposed tariffs, particularly targeting China and the European Union, could disrupt supply chains and increase operational costs (Barron’s, 2024). UK-based firms with U.S. trade links may need to reassess their workforce needs in response, particularly if these changes create demand for roles in compliance, trade strategy, and supply chain management. Conversely, if Harris takes office and adopts a less confrontational trade policy, UK firms may experience steadier demand for roles directly tied to international transactions and investment.

Regulatory Environment and Compliance Hiring

Each candidate brings a distinct approach to financial regulation, which could influence recruitment needs in compliance and regulatory affairs. A Harris administration is likely to pursue more rigorous regulations, potentially increasing demand for compliance roles in firms that operate internationally. In contrast, a Trump administration may favour further deregulation, shifting recruitment priorities towards areas like investment and risk management (T. Rowe Price, 2024). For UK firms, staying responsive to these regulatory shifts is essential, as it can influence the skills required for regulatory and risk management roles.

Impact on Remote Work and Global Talent Competition

The pandemic has made remote work a lasting trend, broadening the reach of talent pools globally. Depending on post-election U.S. policy changes regarding visas and employment regulation, remote work accessibility may further intensify competition for skilled candidates. For example, any reduction in U.S. work restrictions could increase competition for high-demand skills from U.S.-based firms, making it crucial for UK firms to enhance their remote hiring strategies (Firstpost, 2024). Maintaining attractive employment packages and developing flexible hiring practices will be essential for UK companies aiming to secure top-tier talent in an increasingly global market.

Strategic Recruitment in a Shifting Economic Landscape

As UK firms prepare for potential post-election shifts, strategic recruitment becomes even more important. If policies introduced by the next U.S. president lead to economic uncertainty, companies may prioritise flexible hiring strategies to manage costs. This could mean increased demand for contract-based or project-specific roles, allowing firms to adapt quickly to changing conditions without long-term staffing commitments.

Recommendations for UK Firms

Given the possible impacts of the U.S. election on employment and recruitment, UK financial and professional services firms should consider these strategic approaches:

• Risk Assessment: Evaluate exposure to U.S. markets and policy changes to gauge potential impacts on staffing needs.
• Diversified Talent Sourcing: Enhance remote work strategies and source talent globally to stay competitive, particularly in high-demand skill areas.
• Regulatory Compliance Preparation: Strengthen recruitment in compliance and regulatory roles to remain adaptive to any policy shifts.
• Flexible Hiring Models: Consider contract and project-based hiring to provide flexibility amid potential economic fluctuations.
• Employee Retention and Benefits: Competitive packages and clear growth opportunities can help retain talent in an increasingly competitive global labour market.

The upcoming U.S. presidential election will likely influence UK employment and recruitment across the financial and professional services sectors. By proactively adapting hiring strategies and preparing for market shifts, UK firms can strengthen their resilience, ensuring they remain agile and prepared to address evolving global demands.

References

Barron’s. (2024). U.S. election and potential trade wars under Trump. https://www.barrons.com/articles/us-election-president-trump-harris-trade-wars-662af597

Firstpost. (2024). U.S. presidential election 2024: Impact on the global economy and stock market. https://www.firstpost.com/world/united-states/us-presidential-election-2024-impact-global-economy-stock-market-13829929

Reuters. (2024). Global markets brace for U.S. election uncertainty. https://www.reuters.com/markets/global-markets-wrapup-1-2024-11-04/

T. Rowe Price. (2024). How the U.S. election could impact the financial sector. https://www.troweprice.com/financial-intermediary/uk/en/thinking/articles/2024/q3/how-the-us-election-could-impact-the-financials-sector